Speed map
Flying Billie and Steele My Sunshine are the two clear leaders. Flying Billie has the most obvious sustained lead pattern and gate 4, while Steele My Sunshine has similar early speed from gate 2. Dancing Wolf should be close from the inside, with Designer Dreamer and Runaway Statement forming the next on-pace line. The tempo should be genuine but not chaotic unless the two leaders refuse to yield.
The published selection, 3. Flying Billie, is drawn to use his asset. Bree Temple's strong Hobart numbers are a further positive, and the map gives him every chance to be in the first pair. Dancing Wolf is the softer-run danger from gate 1 if the leaders overdo it, while Just A Needs and Verbano are backmarkers who need the pressure to come right out of the race.
Historical overview
Hobart 1390m has a broad enough history to respect both speed and inside position. Across 41 races, leaders have a 26.8% winner share and on-pace runners 24.4%, while inside barriers have the biggest barrier share. The base sample is not as leader-heavy as the sprint trips, but it still does not make deep closers the primary play.
The soft/+3m sample sharpens the case for low-drawn forward horses. Across nine races, leaders have produced 44.4% of winners and inside barriers 66.7%. That sample is small, yet it is consistent with today's strongest map players: Flying Billie, Steele My Sunshine and Dancing Wolf all have claims to the first few from good draws.
- Inside gates are the key barrier lean — 66.7% of soft/+3m 1390m winners came from barriers 1-4.
- Leaders are upgraded — 44.4% of winners in that same setup settled first three.
- Backmarkers are not impossible but need pace — their stronger A/E comes from low volume, so it is a secondary angle.
Overall assessment
Flying Billie should be able to hold a prominent role without crossing half the field, and that is a major advantage in this setup. Steele My Sunshine can keep him busy from the inside, while Dancing Wolf may get the run of the race if the two leaders eyeball each other. Designer Dreamer and Runaway Statement are close enough to be involved, but their map is not quite as clean as the low-drawn first pair.
- 3. Flying Billie — the top read. He is the published selection, maps to the historical leader zone, draws well and has Bree Temple's local angle.
- 8. Dancing Wolf — the main danger if the leaders overdo it. Gate 1 and an on-pace pattern suit the inside/forward profile, with Barry Campbell's track record a positive.
The published selection is 3. Flying Billie at $3.80 fair odds versus $3.60 early, and the race shape supports the selection even if the displayed price is slightly shorter than fair. Steele My Sunshine is the other leader and has the draw to test him, but Flying Billie looks better positioned to control from just off or outside. The risk is that Steele My Sunshine holds him out and forces Flying Billie to spend too much before the turn.